![]() ![]() Think about the timing: At the peak of the sunspot cycle, while the sun is producing its maximum solar irradiation, it turns out that the Sun’s magnetic field is collapsing through its weakest moment. Have we been fooled by a language slip? “Peak” solar activity doesn’t mean a “peak” in magnetic activity, actually it’s the other way around. In the end, the answer was so prosaic, so beautiful - of course, the only possibility for a delay so perfectly timed with solar cycles was within the sun itself. All of which were interesting, but none of which would sit quietly for 10 years and then spring to life. ![]() I spent most of 2013 spotting tantalizing 8 – 12 year cycles in papers on everything from arctic tundra to jet streams. They could respond in weeks or months - but that type of response would not produce “a notch” in the transfer function. But it’s unlikely, though not impossible, that microbiology would act after an 11 year delay. I particularly liked the idea that life on Earth would evolve to try to take advantage of the little extra energy arriving at regular intervals. Given that marine life can produce aerosol particles or carbonyl sulphide, we wondered if blue green algae or phytoplankton were the key. Then there are lunar cycles of 9 – 18 years, potentially generating atmospheric standing waves, but they were not synchronous with the sun. There were many possibilities though none of them seemed to be able to respond with the right timing: A resonant slop in ocean circulation could absorb extra energy, but it was difficult to see how the timing would be so tight with solar peaks. The big mystery is what could cause such a long delay in the correlation of solar radiation with temperatures on Earth?ĭavid and I spent months wondering “what on Earth” could drive it. (Don’t miss the delay post - two very big important concepts out in two posts). Implacably, the discovery of a notch suggests a delay of anything from 10 to 20 years but most likely 11 years. | VI: The solar climate model | VII - Hindcasting | VIII - Predictions The Solar Series: I Background | II: The notch filter | III: The delay | IV: A new solar force? (You are here) | V: Modeling the escaping heat.
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